Category Archives: Analysis

Ten Countries to Watch for in Fragile States Index 2020

BY J.J. MESSNER AND CHARLES FIERTZ After 15 years of producing the Fragile States Index (FSI), we are frequently asked about how predictive of a tool it really is. So, to what extent can the FSI signal emerging crisis, as opposed to merely diagnosing current conditions? Though prediction is inevitably bound by probability and uncertainty, […]

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Fragile States Index 2019

BY FUND FOR PEACE The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The […]

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FSI 2019 Launch Event – Geneva

GENEVA, SWITZERLAND – WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10 THIS EVENT HAS PASSED — WATCH THE ARCHIVED VIDEO ONLINE ABOUT Following a tumultuous year around the globe, Brazil, Cameroon, Nicaragua, Togo, the United Kingdom, Venezuela, and Yemen are among the countries to have been assessed as the world’s most-worsened countries in 2019 according to the Fragile States Index […]

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Always Look on the Bright Side

BY J.J. MESSNER According to the famed philosopher, Eric Idle, one should always look on the bright side of life. “If life seems jolly rotten,” Mr. Idle would have us know, “There’s something you’ve forgotten.”1 From the perspective of the Fragile States Index (FSI), when the constant stream of the 24-hour news cycle peddles continual […]

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The Sad Song of Venezuela

BY CHARLES FIERTZ When the famed Chilean author, Isabel Allende, had to leave her native country in the wake of the military coup against leftist president Salvador Allende in 1973, she and her family fled to the safety and stability of Venezuela, then a beacon among the tumult of Latin America. In a recent interview, […]

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Brazil’s Slide Continues and Takes a Lurch to the Right

BY CHARLES FIERTZ As Brazil continues its 5-year slide of worsening on the Fragile States Index (FSI), this year marks the country’s sharpest year-on-year decline yet, seeing it tie for most-worsened country. Dashing tentative hopes for reversal and recovery that had emerged at the end of 2017, 2018 saw the collapse of the first shoots […]

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Yemen Takes Top Position as Most Fragile State

BY CHRISTINA MURPHY As much as we try to focus on the performance of individual countries on their own terms, there is an unavoidable curiosity and interest attached to the rankings of the Fragile States Index (FSI), and specifically to the country that ranks “top.” In the history of the FSI, only three countries had […]

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Second Time Unlucky for Nicaragua

BY CHARLES FIERTZ In a sharp reversal from nearly a decade of almost continuous improvement, Nicaragua has taken a sharp turn to rank as the third most-worsened country on the 2019 Fragile States Index (FSI). The eruption of mass protests (quelled only after months of violent crackdowns) has shaken the image of Nicaragua as an […]

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Rumblings of Arab Spring 2.0

BY PATRICIA TAFT In late 2010, in a city in central Tunisia, a young street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself ablaze in a final act of defiance and frustration after police confiscated his wares on the street. While his protest may have been localized, the sentiment was not. After nearly three decades of falling […]

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Understanding Resilience: The Case of Somalia

BY NATE HAKEN Global efforts at poverty reduction through infrastructure and institution-building have been an overwhelming international success, with poverty rates having dropped precipitously in the last twenty years. However, there is a glaring exception. In fragile states, with protracted or recurrent crisis, international and multilateral development efforts have not worked. In this “last mile”, […]

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For the first time, the #FragileStatesIndex Team has put together an “early warning” list of countries that we believe will be the ‘big movers’ for #FSI2020. https://t.co/yf6Q2Ydb0t