BY PAULINE H. BAKER, PRESIDENT EMERITUS, FFP An editorial cartoon in the May 27, 2023, edition of The Economist depicted a race about to start with four entrants, each represented by a pretzel-like twisted figure in a state of panic. Onlookers explained it was “a race to determine who’s the most dysfunctional…and all of the […]
Category Archives: Deconflictions
Peru – Decades of Progress in Jeopardy
- 05 June 2023
BY MELINDA ELLINGTON Photo by Alex Phillc on Pixabay Peru steadily improved on the Fragile States Index from 2006, with a sharp reduction in poverty,[1] and improvements in literacy,[2] infant mortality,[3] and life expectancy.[4] But against a backdrop of high inequality, since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 the country has veered sharply toward greater fragility, […]
Incentivizing Peace Only Leads to More War in Sudan
- 01 June 2023
By Reem Abbas and Emily Sample Photo by Ammar Nassir on Unsplash Consistently in the top ten most fragile countries, the hope brought by the 2019 coup has since been dampened by the continued cycle of unstable governance. This has escalated even further in 2023 as the tentative alliance between the Sudanese army and the […]
An Elusive Search for Stability in Burkina Faso as France Takes a Big Step Back
- 31 May 2023
By Billy Agwanda Photo by Stijn Swinnen on Unsplash Until 2015, Burkina Faso, a landlocked West African country with a population of 22 million, remained untouched by the array of jihadist groups operating in the Sahel. Prior to 2015, it was even considered to be an ‘island of stability’. Analysts and researchers opined that with […]
Twisting and Turning: Why Fragility Still Matters in a Time of Great Power Competition
- 26 May 2023
BY NATE HAKEN Photo by Michael Afonso on Unsplash After the attacks of 9/11 an uneasy consensus began to emerge among the national security establishment, humanitarian, and international development actors around state fragility as a unified theory and organizing principle by which to develop policy. Institution building and economic development in places like Iraq and […]
THE HOVERING CLOUD OF CHAOS; WILL NIGERIA SURVIVE A ‘HARD RESET’?
- 22 February 2023
BY Adebobola Omowon JP., Executive Director, Wide Gate Initiative for Peace and Dispute Resolution With less than a week to the Nigerian Presidential elections, the postponement of the election is more likely than the election proceeding. Pockets of violence have been witnessed in various parts of the country as the Nigerian government battles with insurgency […]
Niger Delta Election Conflict Early Warning Brief
- 13 February 2023
This brief provides detailed analysis and three possible election scenarios for conflict early warning and prevention in Nigeria’s coming elections. Download full report HERE
Building Resilience in a Changing Climate
- 31 January 2023
BY EMILY SAMPLE As the world confronts the effects of climate change, the vulnerability of states at all levels of development has become starkly apparent. Structural pressures are mounting, leading to increased frequency and intensity of cascading crises including stress from mass migration, droughts, extreme weather events, disease outbreaks, commodity price shocks, and associated political […]
Building Resilience Amid a National Identity Crisis
- 31 January 2023
BY JOHN MADDEN When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was elected in 2018, he moved to ease political tensions in Ethiopia by releasing political prisoners, privatizing state enterprises, and loosening restrictions on media.[1] He also removed prominent opposition groups from the official list of terrorist organizations to create a more enabling environment for inclusion and social […]
It Will Take More than Nigeria’s Historic Petroleum Legislation to Achieve Peace in the Niger Delta
- 09 January 2023
BY NKASI WODU A little more than a year ago, the Nigerian President signed the Petroleum Industry Governance Act into Law, to achieve a major reform that had previously stalled in the National Assembly since 1999.[1] As part of this law, the Act established the Host Communities Development Trust (HCDT), which intends to “aid the […]