"Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent," said Isaac Asimov,
the American science fiction novelist and scholar.
That concept might seem strange to some people. We tend to
associate war with radical ideologies, the quest for power or
malevolent elites. One might reasonably ask: Is competence really
that significant?
Indeed, it is. Asimov's insight goes to the heart of what is
driving political violence in the early 21st century.
Today's wars - most of which occur within states, not between
them - are driven by some of the same factors that have driven
wars in the past. However, there are new dimensions to
modern conflict that we are only just beginning to fathom.
Violence is erupting predominantly within societies in which
the state - the central locus of authority and power - is
disintegrating. These states may be losing political legitimacy
in the eyes of their people because of repression, rigged
elections, corruption, political exclusion, economic decline
or a coup d'etat. They may be losing their monopoly on the
use of force, confronting private militias, warlords, drug
cartels, organized crime, secessionists or armed rebellions.
Failing states cannot sustain essential public services,
promote equitable economic growth or provide for the public
welfare. They do not maintain domestic tranquility or provide
for the common defense. They are dysfunctional polities - in
large part because they are institutionally incompetent.
One way to create a safer world is by increasing the competence
of the states at risk and of responders, those who intervene
to prevent conflict, aid civilians, or rebuild shattered
societies. Promoting sustainable security, the central
objective of our work, is a matter of increasing the
capacities of states to fulfill their functions.
Recent research suggests that the international community
is getting better at this.
The 2005 Human Security Report, published by Canada's Human
Security Centre at the University of British Colombia, calculated
that there has been a decline in the number of wars, genocides
and human rights abuses over the past decade due to the
increase in international peace efforts since the end of
the Cold War - citing UN and other diplomatic initiatives,
economic sanctions, peacekeeping missions and civil society
activism. Although terrorism is getting worse, the report
stated that 100-odd wars have been quietly ended since 1988,
noting that the probability of war had decreased as state
capacity increased. These conclusions were buttressed by
another 2005 study by the University of Maryland's Center
for International Development and Conflict Management. It
found that separatist civil wars dropped both in number
and intensity to the lowest levels since 1960 and they
declined by one-third since 2003.
The bad news is that sixty wars are still being fought,
according to the Human Security Centre. Our Failed State Index
additionally identified at least 60 states with a high to
borderline risk of political violence, endangering roughly
two billion people. The International Crisis Group found
that 10 ongoing conflicts had deteriorated in 2005 and
only five had improved. Most experts concur that transnational
threats have gone up, about half a dozen genocides are possible,
and the highest risk regions are Sub-Saharan Africa and the Muslim world.
Thus, there is reason to believe that much progress has
been made but considerable evidence shows that there is
also much more to be done. When we were founded in the mid-20th
century, we were a loose organization nurturing semi-autonomous
projects focused on reducing the risk of thermonuclear war in
a bipolar world. After the Cold War, we recognized that so-called
small wars in a diverse world were becoming major threats
to international security. We have significantly contributed
to advancing peace and security in this realm. Through this
website, we describe what we have accomplished and how we
intend to move forward in pursuit of a safer world.
Pauline H. Baker
pbaker@fundforpeace.org
Pauline H. Baker is President of The Fund for Peace, a
research and educational organization that works to prevent war
and alleviate the conditions that cause war. The FfP specializes
on the diagnosis and resolution of conflicts associated with weak
and failing states and on foreign policy responses. Dr. Baker
pioneered the development of CAST, the Conflict Assessment
System Tool, that provides a model for the early warning and
assessment of post-conflict policies. CAST was the basis for
the Failed States Index, published by Foreign Policy magazine
and the FfP. A political scientist with over 40 years of experience
working, Dr. Baker also taught at the University of Lagos
in Nigeria, the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International
Studies, and Georgetown University's School of Advanced International
Studies. She was also a professional staff member of the
U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee and staff director of
the African Affairs Subcommittee. She has published over 80 articles,
essays and books. She received her Doctorate from UCLA and
her undergraduate degree from Douglass College, Rutgers University.
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